The imposition of further sanctions from Western nations against Russia, affecting its oil and gas industry, will cause the dark fleet to remain in operation for the purposes of circumnavigating those sanctions. Most of this dark fleet have substandard maintenance with no insurance, posing a major risk for the environment in case of an oil spillage and a lack of recourse to other vessels following collision incidents. The main risks will come from the highly dangerous and environmentally perilous ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas with no proper oversight. With no realistic end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the risks posed by the dark fleet regrettably appear here to stay in the short-medium term and the insurance industry will need to consider the level of capacity it can and will allocate to this area.

COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine have disrupted the global energy market and in turn caused several countries to invest in their own oil and gas industries. This threatens walking back on policies to support and grow renewable energy. Such actions have already led to numerous disputes (often subject to 'confidential' arbitration), for example between joint venture partners, and we are likely to see a sharp increase in 2025. For insurers, there is still a risk of price volatility arising from the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, which would have a knock-on effect for energy producers and their insurers, in turn increasing the cost of their policy programmes in respect of critical oil and gas facilities across the globe. While the insurance market – especially the marine and political violence arenas – have stepped up to ensure Ukrainian-linked risks can, where possible, benefit from continued insurance provision, this potential knock-on effect has more wide-reaching consequences.