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Latin America predictions

Predictions in Latin America region
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2026 will see consolidation, strategic shifts and product growth in the insurance market

Regulation
Prediction

In recent years, the insurance sector has undergone significant transformation driven by several key factors. The Argentine Insurance Regulator has intensified its scrutiny of companies' solvency, ensuring financial stability and resilience across the industry. Consequently, we can expect the market to experience notable consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, leading to a reduction in competition and increased concentration among major players. This scrutiny has occurred alongside strong deregulation efforts, which have opened the market to more flexible practices and strategic shifts. One such shift is the growing emphasis on energy and mining ventures, spurred by a wave of new investments that are reshaping the focus and priorities of many firms within the sector. Finally, we can expect growth in certain products, like life and retirement insurance.

Economic stability will make Argentina attractive

Economics
Prediction

Foreign insurers will look more favourably on risks in Argentina as the country emerges from a period of sustained recession and hyper-inflation. The government of President Javier Milei has brought the monthly inflation rate down from its December 2023 peak of 25.5% to 1.9% in August 2025, although this still translates to an annual rate of over 33%. The government has been working to attract direct foreign investment and has offered subsidies for the important agricultural sector to raise the level of insurance. Whether this will be enough to encourage insurers back into the market remains to be seen.

Flag carrier revival will open legal airspace over Argentina

Economics
Prediction

The launch of a new regional airline in 2026 will activate a wave of regulatory and transactional aviation work across Argentina and neighbouring jurisdictions. With Argentina as a strategic hub in its route network, legal teams should prepare for increased activity around bilateral air service agreements, AOC certification processes, slot allocations, and employment structuring. Enabled by the open skies frameworks, the carrier will operate with fewer restrictions, but local compliance, airport access, and operational licensing will require careful navigation. For aviation clients, this is a timely opportunity to engage in regulatory strategy, cross-border partnerships, and infrastructure planning as a neighbouring country reclaims its flag carrier status.

Aviation compliance will get a lift in 2026

Regulation
Prediction

Argentina’s new flight operations framework will reduce legal friction and reshape compliance strategies in 2026. A recent regulatory resolution has simplified the reporting process for regular, non-regular, and special flights, eliminating prior authorisation requirements and introducing automatic approvals for international operations. This shift lowers administrative burdens and enhances predictability for both domestic and foreign carriers. For aviation clients, the new regime demands updated compliance protocols, timely reporting mechanisms, and robust documentation. Legal teams need to be prepared to advise on operational risks, enforcement exposure, and strategic use of the streamlined system to optimise route planning and market entry.

Legal strategy will be key to low-cost expansion

Regulation, Environment
Prediction

A major low-cost carrier’s bid for 25% of Argentina’s domestic aviation market in 2026 will intensify legal and regulatory activity around fleet expansion and competitive access. With deregulation enabling aircraft interchange and streamlined certifications, the airline is rapidly scaling its operations - adding fuel-efficient aircraft and launching new routes to underserved destinations. Legal teams advising carriers, airports, and investors must prepare for increased demand in aircraft leasing, slot negotiations, and environmental compliance. The new aircraft model’s sustainability features also bring environmental, social and governance considerations into sharper legal focus. Argentina’s liberalised aviation landscape now provides the perfect opportunity for low-cost growth and legal strategy will be key to navigating it.

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