Informed Insurance

The home of thought leadership by

Informed Insurance

Predictions
Or
Or
Predictions

Latin America predictions

Predictions in Latin America region
Sort by 
Sort and filter
Sort and filter

2026 will see consolidation, strategic shifts and product growth in the insurance market

Regulation
Prediction

In recent years, the insurance sector has undergone significant transformation driven by several key factors. The Argentine Insurance Regulator has intensified its scrutiny of companies' solvency, ensuring financial stability and resilience across the industry. Consequently, we can expect the market to experience notable consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, leading to a reduction in competition and increased concentration among major players. This scrutiny has occurred alongside strong deregulation efforts, which have opened the market to more flexible practices and strategic shifts. One such shift is the growing emphasis on energy and mining ventures, spurred by a wave of new investments that are reshaping the focus and priorities of many firms within the sector. Finally, we can expect growth in certain products, like life and retirement insurance.

Economic stability will make Argentina attractive

Economics
Prediction

Foreign insurers will look more favourably on risks in Argentina as the country emerges from a period of sustained recession and hyper-inflation. The government of President Javier Milei has brought the monthly inflation rate down from its December 2023 peak of 25.5% to 1.9% in August 2025, although this still translates to an annual rate of over 33%. The government has been working to attract direct foreign investment and has offered subsidies for the important agricultural sector to raise the level of insurance. Whether this will be enough to encourage insurers back into the market remains to be seen.

Flag carrier revival will open legal airspace over Argentina

Economics
Prediction

The launch of a new regional airline in 2026 will activate a wave of regulatory and transactional aviation work across Argentina and neighbouring jurisdictions. With Argentina as a strategic hub in its route network, legal teams should prepare for increased activity around bilateral air service agreements, AOC certification processes, slot allocations, and employment structuring. Enabled by the open skies frameworks, the carrier will operate with fewer restrictions, but local compliance, airport access, and operational licensing will require careful navigation. For aviation clients, this is a timely opportunity to engage in regulatory strategy, cross-border partnerships, and infrastructure planning as a neighbouring country reclaims its flag carrier status.

Aviation compliance will get a lift in 2026

Regulation
Prediction

Argentina’s new flight operations framework will reduce legal friction and reshape compliance strategies in 2026. A recent regulatory resolution has simplified the reporting process for regular, non-regular, and special flights, eliminating prior authorisation requirements and introducing automatic approvals for international operations. This shift lowers administrative burdens and enhances predictability for both domestic and foreign carriers. For aviation clients, the new regime demands updated compliance protocols, timely reporting mechanisms, and robust documentation. Legal teams need to be prepared to advise on operational risks, enforcement exposure, and strategic use of the streamlined system to optimise route planning and market entry.

Legal strategy will be key to low-cost expansion

Regulation, Environment
Prediction

A major low-cost carrier’s bid for 25% of Argentina’s domestic aviation market in 2026 will intensify legal and regulatory activity around fleet expansion and competitive access. With deregulation enabling aircraft interchange and streamlined certifications, the airline is rapidly scaling its operations - adding fuel-efficient aircraft and launching new routes to underserved destinations. Legal teams advising carriers, airports, and investors must prepare for increased demand in aircraft leasing, slot negotiations, and environmental compliance. The new aircraft model’s sustainability features also bring environmental, social and governance considerations into sharper legal focus. Argentina’s liberalised aviation landscape now provides the perfect opportunity for low-cost growth and legal strategy will be key to navigating it.

New Brazilian Insurance Act will change the legal landscape for the local market

Regulation
Prediction

The new Brazilian Insurance Act, set to take effect in December 2025, will significantly strengthen insureds’ rights, making contracts more transparent and claims handling faster. Insurers will be required to provide clear and accessible policy wordings, justify claim denials in detail, and adhere to strict response deadlines, including for large risk losses. Failure to do so may result in penalties or claims being automatically accepted. The law also mandates that any ambiguity in policy terms be interpreted in favor of the insured. This shift will empower policyholders and might increase litigation in the short term as market practices adjust, while forcing insurers to overhaul internal processes, invest in staff training, and upgrade systems to ensure compliance and avoid regulatory sanctions.

ESG-driven insurance products could gain traction

Environment, Social Issues, Regulation
Prediction

Brazil’s insurance market may experience a notable increase in products linked to environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria. Insurers could introduce more green insurance policies, climate risk coverage, and microinsurance aimed at underserved populations, especially if regulatory pressure and consumer awareness continue to grow. Companies that successfully integrate ESG into their underwriting and claims processes might attract greater investment and customer loyalty, while those slower to adapt could face reputational and regulatory challenges. However, the extent and speed of this shift will depend on evolving market dynamics, regulatory developments, and the willingness of both insurers and consumers to embrace ESG-driven solutions.

Social catastrophe insurance will move from debate to design

Social Issues, Environment, Regulation
Prediction

Brazil is set to make significant progress towards establishing a national social insurance scheme for catastrophic events, such as floods and landslides. Following devastating climate disasters and a persistent protection gap, the government, through the insurance regulator's dedicated working group and with strong support from Congress and the insurance industry, is working to design a public-private catastrophe insurance model. The scheme will focus on providing rapid, emergency payouts to low-income and vulnerable populations, with eligibility and funding mechanisms shaped by ongoing stakeholder consultations. While full implementation may extend beyond 2026, the year will mark a turning point as Brazil moves from political debate to concrete regulatory proposals and pilot programmes, setting the stage for a more resilient and inclusive disaster response system.

Open insurance could accelerate market innovation

Technology, Regulation, Social Issues
Prediction

By 2026, the ongoing rollout of Brazil’s open insurance framework may foster a wave of innovation and competition across the sector. If data-sharing protocols and interoperability standards are widely adopted, consumers could benefit from more personalised products, easier policy comparisons, and improved movement between insurers. New entrants, including fintechs and insurtechs, might leverage open data to offer tailored solutions and challenge established players. However, the pace and impact of open insurance will depend on regulatory clarity, industry collaboration, and consumer trust in data privacy and security. If these factors align, open insurance could reshape how Brazilians interact with insurance providers and drive broader financial inclusion.

Digital channels are set to boost insurance distribution

Technology, Regulation
Prediction

Digital channels may become the leading mode of insurance distribution in Brazil, with a growing share of new policies sold and managed online or via mobile apps. This potential shift could be influenced by regulatory support for digital onboarding, the rise of insurtechs, and increasing consumer demand for convenience and transparency. Traditional brokers and agents are likely to respond by offering hybrid digital-human services, while the market may gradually favour seamless, self-service digital experiences. If this trend accelerates, insurers that do not invest in robust digital platforms and data-driven personalisation could risk losing market share to more agile competitors. However, the pace and extent of digital adoption will depend on consumer preferences, regulatory developments, and the ability of incumbents to adapt.

Expect increased liability exposure for electricity companies

Social Issues, Environment
Prediction

Due to climate change and greater chances of unprecedented heavy storms, it is expected that more power outage-related incidents will take place in Chile. This will increase liability exposure for electricity companies (especially electricity distribution) as: i) the consumer authority has taken an aggressive role by initiating class actions on behalf of consumers against electricity companies for greater damages than those historically awarded; and ii) for the first time in Chile's history, a civil court granted compensation for moral damages to consumers that were affected by a power outage. This has opened the door to new claimants and new damages, both of which will require more attention by underwriters.

New fintech law will promote parametric insurance for earthquakes

Technology, Regulation
Prediction

In January 2023, Law No. 21,521 came into force, promoting financial competition and inclusion through innovation and technology in the provision of financial services, known as the Fintech Law. This law introduces the concept of parametric insurance and the simplification of the design of policies and settlement procedures. Moreover, the regulator has established a list of risks that can be insured using a parametric model, the variables that activate cover, and the minimum content of insurance policies. We expect this will appeal to the property sector for losses related to natural catastrophes, and, in particular earthquakes, given Chile's history.

Pension reform in Chile will bring significant positive changes

Economics, Social Issues, Regulation
Prediction

During 2025, the Chilean Congress approved a reform of the pension system, becoming one of the most important legal reforms of the last 40 years. It will increase pension contributions (gradually until 2033) by 8.5%, of which 4.5% will go directly to individual capitalisation, and the other 4% will strengthen social security equality between men and women. In the face of these guaranteed increases in pensions, life annuities will generate a greater interest for future pensioners, creating a favourable scenario for this insurance product in the market. We also expect the reform to improve economic growth, gradually decreasing unemployment and reactivating an economy that is still very resentful following the pandemic.

New cyber and data protection regulation will drive uptake of cover and notification of losses

Technology, Regulation
Prediction

While the new cyber regulation has been in place for the last year, the new Data Protection regulation will come into force by the end of 2026, both of which establish standards of protection for systems and data respectively, also requiring notice of breaches and setting out fines and penalties for those who do not comply. Consequently, it is expected that notification of cyber losses to insurers will increase, along with interest in cyber-related insurance by large corporations.

1 of 3
Next page