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Environment

Prediction: Weather events will continue to affect first party property insurance offerings

Environment
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Prediction

Anthropogenic activity has caused – and continues to cause – significant changes in the Earth's climate through emission of greenhouse gases, deforestation, and industrial processes. These changes include shifting weather patterns, more intense tropical cyclones, and exposure of certain areas to more intense non-tropical storm systems. In the United States, climate change has been found to be a factor in the shift of two of the country's weather 'alleys'. 'Tornado Alley' historically referred to parts of Texas northward to areas of South Dakota but more recently includes portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and western Tennessee. 'Hail Alley' historically referred primarily to areas of Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming, but has also more recently shifted eastward. The upshot of these shifts is that different areas of the country are now experiencing weather-related risks that they have not typically had to deal with. While insurers historically have offset weather-related risks through premium rates and calculating deductibles as a percentage of policy limits/insured values, more recently they have been unwilling to cover certain climate-related risks, either adopting policy exclusions or exiting certain geographic markets altogether. We expect insurers to continue taking such a stance.

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