The full impact of US tariffs could result in countries adopting regulatory measures adverse to US investors, and beyond. In September, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development noted that while global growth was more resilient than had been expected, the full impact of US tariffs was yet to be felt. By the end of August 2025, the effective US rate on merchandise imports was estimated at 19.5%. While AI investment and goods stockpiling meant US companies were able to absorb the economic shock via lower margins, it is perhaps only a matter of time before both factors begin to wane. This could lead to a greater reliance on US domestic, non-tariffed goods – an oft-stated goal of the tariff policy – resulting in fewer imports and foreign states' economies losing out. Tariffs appear to be here for the medium term, at least. Faced with shrinking economies and domestic dissatisfaction with diminishing trade with the United States, foreign governments could seek reprisal through their domestic regulatory regimes. Local content and/or shareholder requirements for foreign companies to invest in domestic operations and/or the extraction of resources could be imposed in indirect response to US tariffs. The impact on foreign investors targeted (with non-US third country companies being dragged in to avoid obvious anti-US accusations) could bring into play common perils insured by the political risk market, such as (creeping) expropriation, discriminatory treatment, and possible nationalisation. Investors, as well as political risk underwriters and risk analysis, would be sensible to keep a particular eye on the investment environment in countries with the highest level of tariffs imposed by the US regime.