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Technology, Social Issues

Prediction: Drone warfare will lead flight to political violence insurance

Technology, Social Issues
Political Risk, Trade Credit and Political Violence
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Prediction

The exponential rise of the use of drones in the theatres of combat will raise the awareness (and need) for political violence insurance far beyond the front lines. The increase in use is driven by advancements in AI and lower costs, making them a cheaper and 'safer' alternative to manned aircraft for both surveillance and offensive strikes. Unmanned aerial vehicles have become the main weapon of the war in Ukraine, now accounting for up to 80% of all Russian and Ukrainian casualties. The technology is causing mayhem far beyond the front lines, with Ukraine using quadcopters (drones with four rotors) to mount a devastating attack on airfields deep inside Russia, including one in eastern Siberia some 3,000 miles from Kyiv. But their recent usage demonstrates how neighbouring countries, and insureds therein, are also exposed to the threat of this technology. In September 2025, 19 Russian drones flew over Poland overnight, of which up to four were shot down - the wreckage of 16 were found scattered across the Polish countryside, smashing into homes and damaging cars. It marks the first time Russian drones have been downed over the territory of a NATO state. The provision of political violence cover within a country actively engaged in a war is likely difficult (and expensive). However, drone warfare will mean that those insureds that consider the epicentre of conflict to be far from their property would be well advised to consider their political violence coverage, including whether it extends to perils such as War, Warlike Operations and Hostile Acts of sovereign entities, to name just a few potentially applicable perils.

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