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Environment, Geopolitics

Prediction: Changing global approaches to the energy transition will result in a rebound in oil and gas exploration activity

Environment, Geopolitics
Marine, Energy and Transport
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In recent years, the global momentum toward renewable energy has been widely celebrated as a critical pathway to combating climate change. However, a noticeable shift in this dynamic is emerging, leading to a resurgence in oil and gas exploration activity worldwide. This trend reflects changing policy stances, economic realities, and evolving market conditions that complicate the clean energy transition. While the Trump administration’s rollback of environmental regulations drew significant attention, the shift is broader and more nuanced. For instance, Lloyd’s of London’s new chief executive recently signalled a pragmatic approach by stating that the insurance market will not outright ban polluting industries, emphasising a more balanced and economically driven transition. This stance echoes growing concerns about the marginal profitability of renewables, which, despite technological advances, often struggle with high capital costs and intermittent returns. As a result, investment in upstream oil and gas exploration and downstream infrastructure is experiencing a notable uptick. Companies are expanding construction activity related to extraction, processing, and transportation, driven partly by persistent demand and geopolitical uncertainties. This is likely to translate into increased insurance claims activity in the fossil fuel sector.

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