Informed Insurance

The home of thought leadership by

Informed Insurance

Predictions
Or
Or
Economics

Prediction: A positive forecast for the Personal Injury Discount Rate?

Economics
Medical Malpractice
LinkedIn Email Share this prediction
Prediction

The Personal Injury Discount Rate (PIDR) review in England and Wales will be complete by 11 January 2025 (and possibly sooner). This will either see no change to the discount rate, a rate change, or more radical changes such as different rates for different periods of loss or different types of loss (e.g. different rates for care and for earnings). Many in the market anticipate the retention of a single discount rate which will be at a positive level compared to the current -0.25%. Support for this view has been taken from the decision (November 2023) in the Isle of Man to adopt a 1% discount rate, based on advice provided by the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) for the UK. The GAD's advice assumed a continuation of favourable gilt yields (which at the time were, and still are, around 1.5% to 2% higher than the GAD's 2019 analysis) and a fall in inflation, economic trends which have continued. Further support for this view can now be found from the 26 September 2024 announcement that the discount rate in Scotland and Northern Ireland will increase (from -0.75% and -1.5% respectively) to +0.5%.

Back to Economics